%% [[Thinking]] tags:: #note/idea | #on/risk | #on/design | #on/theory | #on/systems people:: #on/donnellameadows # second order effects Lon Setnik dates:: 2022-10-01 %% *When you end up killing all the local mammals in Australia introducing cats to kill the rabbits you introduced.* This reminds me of [[Thinking in Systems]], how balancing vs positive and negative re-enforcing loops can get out of control easily. It's kind of like [[Antifragility]], how [[black swan events]] This is the idea that we can try to predict the intended impacts, and the unintended impacts. However, we need to try to predict the unintended impacts of the changes that will occur based on the intended and unintended impacts. This matters because often the second order effects are more important than the first order effects in the long run. ### What would the opposite argument be? In complex systems you cannot predict second order effects so don't bother to predict, just bother to look and be prepared to implement balancing loops so that second order effects don't run out of control. ## Sources: [[Thinking in Systems]]