[[Deciding]] tags:: #note/idea | #on/decisions | #on/expertise | #on/performance | #on/behavior | #on/expertise people:: #people/garyklein Lon Setnik dates:: 2022-08-21 *A model for how experts can develop and implement intuitive expertise.* This reminds me of [[Expert Blind Spot]], how experts think doesn't always = how novices think, and novices don't always need expert thinking to help them. It's kind of like [[expertise reversal effect]], and the different ways that tests can appear to experts vs novices. It's also about [[Learning]], how people create models of increasing complexity. > The naturalistic decision making (NDM) framework emerged as a means of studying how people make decisions and perform cognitively complex functions in demanding, real-world situations. These include situations marked by limited time, uncertainty, high stakes, team and organizational constraints, unstable conditions, and varying amounts of experience. > > [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naturalistic%20decision-making) NDM is a model that works best in situations where complicated sets of conditions can be tested and the learner gets real feedback. NDM fails in situations [[dealing with complexity]], when the feedback patters are actually misleading. In those situations, the learner develops erroneous confidence in their expertise, they create patterns with positive feedback when it would not be appropriate, and is likely one of the issues that leads to increasing confidence without increasing rates of improvement in certain conditions. Chess is the perfect example of where NDM works, chess is a constrained and complicated but not complex system. NDM researchers use cognitive [[task analysis]] to try to identify the cues that the experts used. It matters because we can learn from experts if we give them the space to describe how they thought, and also how they felt through their whole body, as in [[The Extended Mind]], and [[emotion changes the world we are in]]. ### What would the opposite argument be? Post-hoc analysis ## Sources: Kahneman, D., & Klein, G. (2009). Conditions for intuitive expertise: A failure to disagree. _American Psychologist_, _64_(6), 515–526. [https://doi.org/10.1037/a0016755](https://doi.org/10.1037/a0016755) [[Decision-Making in Action]] Todd, P. M., & Gigerenzer, G. (2001). Putting naturalistic decision making into the adaptive toolbox. _Journal of Behavioral Decision Making_, _14_(5), 381–383. [https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.396](https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.396) Klein, Gary. (2008). _Naturalistic Decision Making.pdf_. Human Factors. [http://iac.dtic.mil/hsiac](http://iac.dtic.mil/hsiac)